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• The Business Trends and Outlook Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that a significant portion of businesses in the U.S. currently report average performance, with some performing above and below average.
• Looking ahead, businesses are cautiously optimistic, with a majority anticipating an average performance six months from the provided date, but there is also a segment expecting above-average and excellent performance.
• Businesses vary in their forecast horizons, with a notable number planning for the mid-term (7-12 months) and even longer-term (more than 12 months), showcasing diverse approaches to strategic planning among small businesses in the U.S.
The U.S. Census Bureau recently conducted a comprehensive Business Trends and Outlook Survey to gather insights into the performance and outlook of businesses across the nation. The survey covered various aspects of business performance, future expectations, and forecast horizons. Here, we analyze the data from this survey to provide valuable insights for small businesses.
Understanding the current state of affairs is crucial for any business. The survey asked respondents to describe their businesses’ current performance, and the results are enlightening:
The majority of businesses, at 47.7%, reported an average current performance. This suggests that many businesses are holding steady. About 10.7% of businesses reported excellent current performance, showcasing that excellence is achievable for a substantial minority. Approximately 19.8% of businesses reported that their current performance is above average. This indicates a significant portion of businesses in the U.S. are currently thriving. 16.2% of businesses find themselves below average in terms of their current performance. This is a reminder that challenges exist for a notable portion of businesses. A smaller fraction, 5.6%, reported poor current performance. These businesses may need immediate attention to improve their situation.
Looking ahead is fundamental for business planning. The survey inquired about how businesses anticipate their performance six months from the provided date:
The largest percentage, 50.2%, anticipates an average performance. While it’s steady, it may indicate that many businesses are not overly optimistic about rapid growth. 8.4% of businesses have high hopes, anticipating excellent performance. This shows that a segment of businesses is confident in their strategies and market opportunities. It’s encouraging to note that 21.8% of businesses expect their performance to be above average in the near future. This suggests optimism and growth potential. Approximately 14.3% of businesses are cautious about their future performance, expecting it to be below average. Some businesses, 5.3%, foresee a poor future performance. This is a reminder of the potential challenges ahead for a subset of businesses.
Understanding how far into the future businesses believe they can predict their performance is essential for planning and decision-making:
The majority, at 33.6%, foresee their performance for 4-6 months. This suggests a balance between short and mid-term planning for many businesses. A modest 9.6% of businesses believe they can predict their performance for one month or less. This suggests a short-term focus for these businesses. 19.2% of businesses extend their forecast horizon to 2-3 months, indicating a slightly longer planning horizon for this group. A significant 21.2% of businesses believe they can predict their performance for 7-12 months, indicating a substantial number of businesses planning for the mid-term. Interestingly, 16.4% of businesses have a longer-term perspective, believing they can predict their performance for more than 12 months.
In conclusion, the Business Trends and Outlook Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau provides valuable insights for small businesses. While the majority of businesses currently report average performance and anticipate a similar performance in the near future, there is a notable segment that expects above-average and excellent performance. Additionally, the diversity in forecast horizons reflects the varying planning approaches of businesses. Small businesses can use these insights to benchmark their own performance and refine their strategic planning based on market trends and the outlook of their peers.